Automation

We ran an interesting study on MWM smallcase to understand the frequency of rebalance and power of timing.

We pulled out data from our archives to see what our portfolio was as on 4th Jan /2021. Then we ran the assumption that we did not take any rebalance for the remaining period.

What do you think would be the end result and how would it fare Vs the current returns of #MWM

Lets have a look.

Current #MWM portfolio with all rebalances taken on stipulated time resulted in a return of 62% whereas buy and hold since January fetched…


Buy and hold Vs trend following.

So let us continue our discovery. We started with Nifty 200 Momentum 30 index. Mr Kudva suggested that we do it on the index itself rather than the factor.

So, here it goes.

Start date: 03/April/2005 to current.

Starting capital: 200000

Ending capital: 1534815.91

Net Profit: 1334815.91

CAGR: 13.22%

MaxDD: -62.97%

Car/MaxDD: 0.21

Here is how the monthly performance table looks like


Buy and Hold Vs Riding a Trend.

UTI recently launched a fund mimicking this Index Fund. Nifty 200 momentum 30 index. The index data is available from 2005. So we thought lets see if we can run an ATR based trend system on it.

Like always , lets see what a plain vanilla buy and hold investor would have achieved.

Starting capital: 200000

Ending capital: 3669990

Net profit: 3469990

CAGR: 19.39%

MAX DD -66.45%

CAR/MaxDD: 0.29

This is how it appears month on month.


Memory Vs Experience

I was watching recently concluded #ChessWorldcup and Vishy Anand while doing his commentary brought up an Interesting topic.

He said,

While Vladimir Fedoseev has had a wonderful tournament, he will not feel well about this tournament.

Vladimir Fedoseev finished 4th in a 206 player Single elimination tournament pocketing $50,000 and qualifying for Chess Grand Prix but he will not feel well about this tournament.

WHY!!

He apparently lost the last 03 games of the tournament. First in the semifinals and then 02 against Magnus Carlsen fighting for 3rd place.

What is the big deal, why am I…


A Simple concept of coin toss (probability and risk data coming out of it) is a wonderful way to bring home the point of Risk Management.

This would appear to be kinder-garden stuff, but trust me, be it maths, poker, chess or stock markets, you gain BIG when you have got the basics right!!

Assumptions:

  • The coin is fair: It has 02 sides, head and tail clearly demarked.
  • You are Not Intoxicated or atleast sober enough to record the outcome of the coin toss.
  • Basic Excel Skills

So, we know that Probability of a coin showing either HEAD or TAIL…


We received this feedback on twitter that as far as Live data is concerned (from the day you went live) You are not beating the smallcap index.


We asked this question to Wesley Gray in our podcast if Value and Momentum should be combined. He answered our question by providing a detailed backtests suggesting that they are better off run separately as they work complimentary to each other.

We at MysticWealth run Model portfolios in Momentum and Value. We run them so separate that a different fund manager is dedicated to each.

We received the feedback that for someone to get exposure to both, the subscription fee can be very steep and eat away the alpha.

To celebrate crossing of 100% returns of MWV (17% CAGR) we…


This is another BIG one. One of the most common question asked. And it is a million dollar question isn’t it.

Problem is, there is NO ANSWER. As an advisor, you are doomed if you answer this with a strong opinion.

The reason we think there is NO answer to this question is that it is impossible to predict the direction of the market in short term, and this handicap is bestowed upon ALL of us. Only the intelligent are aware of it.

If you say/feel that market is ripe for correction and advise accordingly, the ensuing rally will happen…


One of the most common questions we get asked is to explain the difference between UTI momentum Index fund and our signature momentum offering #MWM (MysticWealth Momentum)

Prior to this fund, mutual funds were known to select stocks on the basis of research and analyses done on fundamentals and financials of the company. This is the first time they have ventured into our domain. (Actually not the fist time as technically even Nifty50 is a momentum product only) but as a feasible strategy only looking at ROC and not size (marketcap), this is a first genuine attempt. …


I was totally overwhelmed by a wonderful response I received for My #EDECMA presentation organized by DefineEdge.

I received numerous emails, requesting to explain the most provocative slide of them all.

So Lets start from the start.

How is a Decision made. In our domain as a trader we need to make decisions everyday. Few important ones that matter include When do you decide to buy/sell/hold/pyramid/partial book a position. Your entire PnL is dependent on these decisions. Each one would have a serious impact on outcome.

If any of these decisions are not Pre-defined, you are basically allowing the subconscious…

Mystic Wealth

Insights for DIY investors on Risk management, Option strategies, Special Situations & Momentum.

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