A Trick Question!!

We asked a trick question on our twitter feed and this is the response we received.

Why is this a trick question? and what does the answer tell us.

Let us use inversion technique to understand the underlying message of this tweet. If you want to know more about inversion technique, please read this fascinating blog.

Inverting the above result, we can say that 58.8% of the participants would regret a decision they took just 01 hour ago!!

Sure, you can say this is a small sample size of 51 votes and it does not reflect the actual sentiment.

However, after spending close to 12 years in the industry, I am willing to speculate that this number is not far from the actual numbers. This sentiment represents majority of market participants.

How can you regret a decision so quickly.

Think about it. Let me exaggerate the problem to bring home the point. Let us say you have decided to tie the knot and marry your sweetheart, one hour into the marriage, it just HITS YOU, what the fuck have I done, is this the biggest mistake of my life.

Unless it is just temporary jitters coming from a big decision, this kind of “REGRET” implies just one thing.

YOU DON’T KNOW WHAT YOU ARE DOING.

When you don’t have a specific system that clearly defines what, when and how much, you are at mercy of your senses. Any stimuli (read JOKERS on TV, news, price action) can and will ‘trigger’ you to buy a stock and 01 hour later (sometimes a lot earlier) you will be regretting that decision.

This small exercise was a Zen technique to show the mirror.

If you are regretting your decision within 01 hour of taking it, you are a slave to your senses and have NO system. You are degenerate gambler who got sucked into buying a stock.

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