Its a documented fact that retail investors forego their SIP (Systematic investment plan) just at the worst possible time (the bottom tick) and invariably join at the peak of a bull run.
Ever wondered why!!!.
Reason is DRAWDOWN. The losses accumulating over a period of time, reach an UNCLE point beyond which you throw in the towel.
As we have seen in psychology, there are 02 ways to deal with pain/fear. One is obvious to repress it and blame the victim. Statements like “Retail investors are not mature enough to deal with the ups and downs”
If you cannot withstand drawdowns of 50–70%, you are not fit for equity investing.
Or use the shield of Nudge boy, Thaler and propagate that you can nudge your behavior biases away by being aware of them.
The second way and the RIGHT WAY is to acknowledge that pain and WITNESS it in all its glory. The DRAWDOWN pain is trying to tell you something. It tells you that SOMETHING IS WRONG.
YOU HAVE BEEN SOLD A LEMON.
It is NOT OK to withstand a drawdown beyond your UNCLE POINT. You cannot NUDGE your behavior biases by parroting a book. You cannot even change your reaction pattern to a trigger statement by your wife, leave alone become a stoic and be all accepting.
Trick lies in PREVENTION and NOT Cure
We have 02 centuries worth of data proving the efficacy of TREND FOLLOWING and how it cuts down the TAIL RISK and therefore reducing the drawdown levels to human pain threshold.
Please read our Blog here to see how we applied on Indian indices.
Download a 02 centuries worth of research paper to know for yourself how robust the FACTOR is.
To Add more robustness and anti fragility to our portfolio, we introduce Asset allocation to our Trend following system.
We divide our corpus into 70:15:15 Equity, Gold and Gilt fund (ALL ETFs).
Now we are staring at a STRATEGY which has Asset allocation taken care of, A trend following Overlay to ensure there are minimal drawdowns and most importantly a vehicle to deploy spare cash every month. (SIP).
So there you have it. A 70:15:15 Equity gold debt portfolio with a trend following overlay (on Equity component) which goes into debt fund in down trend.
- The system will under-perform its benchmarks, thats not a bug, its a feature. Its a tail protection strategy that ensures You remain in the game forever.
- For time being we will use use Junior bees for our equity component, Goldbees for gold and Reliance long term gilt fund ETF for gilt component and LIQUID bees for debt.
- We shall be collaborating with smallcase to offer this product to public at large.
- Product will be priced at Rs 1599/Year to ensure the fees doesn’t eat into slow compounding. (MWM members will have free access).
More details pertaining to the process and procedure on How to Subscribe to MysticWealth small case will follow.
Originally published at mysticwealth.in on March 13, 2019.